Mwachidule:Kuyambira Januwale mpaka Juni, mitengo yachitsulo, malasha, billet, chitsulo chowombera, chitoliro chachitsulo ndi zinthu zina zambiri zimasinthasintha kwambiri. Ngakhale ndondomeko zandalama zotayirira komanso zanzeru zidalimbikitsa kuwongolera kwachuma chapakhomo chaka chino, ntchito yomanga idachira pang'onopang'ono chaka chino. Kuonjezera apo, chilengedwe chakunja chikadali chovuta komanso chovuta, zotsatira za kuchotsedwa kwa ndondomeko m'machuma akuluakulu zawonjezeka, ndipo pali zopinga zambiri pa kutulutsidwa kwa zofuna zapakhomo. Chiyanjano chonse chopereka ndi chofuna cha mitundu yachitsulo chaka chino chimakhala ndi "chiyembekezo champhamvu ndi chowona chofooka". Monga mtundu wofunikira wowotcherera pamakampani omanga, pepalali lisanthula mwachidule magwiridwe antchito a mapaipi owotcherera ku China m'miyezi yaposachedwa.
Ⅰ. Mtengo wa mapaipi owotcherera watsika kwambiri chaka ndi chaka
Potengera mtengo wapaipi wowotcherera mdziko m'zaka zinayi zaposachedwa, poyambira mtengo wapaipi wowotcherera koyambirira kwa 2023 mwachiwonekere ndi wotsika kuposa nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha. Pa Januware 2, 2023, mtengo wapakati wapaipi wowotcherera mdziko lonse unali 4,492 yuan/tani, kutsika ndi 677 yuan/tani pachaka; Pofika pa Juni 7, 2023, mtengo wapakati wamapaipi otenthedwa mu 2023 unali 4,153 yuan/ton, kutsika ndi 1,059 yuan/ton kapena 20.32% pachaka.
Kuchokera mu 2021, mitengo yamtengo wapatali yakhala ikukwera kwambiri, PPI m'mayiko akuluakulu azachuma yakwera kwambiri, ndipo mitengo yamtengo wapatali yamtengo wapatali ikupitirizabe kufalikira mpaka pakati ndi pansi. Kuyambira mu June 2022, ndi kufunikira kochepa kosalekeza kwa zinthu zomalizidwa, mitengo ya zinthu zopangira kunyumba ndi kunja yatsika kwambiri, ndipo mtengo wapakati wa mapaipi achitsulo wayambanso kutsika kwambiri. Pambuyo pa mafunde angapo akutsika mofulumira kwamitengo yamtengo wapatali, mtengo wa mapaipi otsekemera chaka chino ndi wotsika kwambiri kuposa wa nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha. M'gawo loyamba, pansi pa chiyembekezero chabwino kwambiri, kutsika kwapansi kwa mtsinje kunakula, ndipo mtengo wa chitoliro cha welded dziko unakwera pang'ono. Komabe, chifukwa cha kulephera kwa chikhalidwe cha chikhalidwe cha nyengo, mitengo ya zipangizo ndi zinthu zomalizidwa zinayamba kutsika, koma kuchepa kwa mtengo sikunawonjezere kufunika kwenikweni. Mu June, dziko welded chitoliro mtengo anali kale pa mlingo otsika m'zaka zaposachedwapa.
Ⅱ. Kufufuza kwadziko lonse kwa mapaipi opangidwa ndi welded ndi otsika chaka ndi chaka
Kukhudzidwa ndi kusinthasintha kwakukulu ndi kusintha mofulumira kwa welded chitoliro mtengo zaka ziwiri zapitazi, amalonda ambiri anasankha njira khola kasamalidwe chaka chino. Pofuna kuchepetsa kupanikizika komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha kusowa kwa zinthu, zosungirako nthawi zambiri zimasungidwa pamlingo wapakatikati komanso wotsika. Pambuyo pamtengo wa mipope yowotcherera idasinthasintha ndikugwa mu Marichi, kuchuluka kwa mipope yowotcherera ku China kudachepa kwambiri. Pofika pa June 2, chiwerengero cha anthu amtundu wa mipope yowotcherera chinali matani 820,400, kuwonjezeka kwa 0,47% mwezi-pa-mwezi ndi kuchepa kwa 10,61% chaka ndi chaka, chomwe chafika pamlingo wochepa wazaka zitatu zapitazi. Posachedwapa, amalonda ambiri ali ndi mphamvu zochepa zogulitsa katundu.
Chithunzi 2: Social Inventory of Welded Pipe (Unit: 10,000 tons)
Ⅲ.Phindu la welded chitoliro ndi pa mlingo otsika mu zaka zitatu zapitazi
Kuchokera pamalingaliro a phindu lamakampani opanga zitoliro zowotcherera, phindu lamakampani opangira zitoliro limasinthasintha kwambiri chaka chino, lomwe lingagawidwe m'magawo otsatirawa. Pofika pa Meyi 10, 2023, phindu latsiku ndi tsiku la makampani otenthetsera mapaipi kuyambira Januwale mpaka Marichi linali 105 yuan/tani, kutsika kwapachaka ndi 39 yuan/tani; Kuyambira January mpaka March, pafupifupi tsiku lililonse phindu makampani mipope kanasonkhezereka anali 157 yuan/tani, kuwonjezeka 28 yuan/tani chaka ndi chaka; Kuyambira April mpaka May, pafupifupi tsiku lililonse phindu makampani welded chitoliro anali-82 yuan/tani, chaka ndi chaka kuchepa kwa 126 yuan/tani; Kuyambira mwezi wa April mpaka May, phindu la tsiku ndi tsiku la malonda a mapaipi opangidwa ndi malata linali-20 yuan/tani, kuchepa kwa chaka ndi chaka ndi 44 yuan/tani; Pakali pano, phindu la welded chitoliro makampani pa mlingo otsika m'zaka zitatu zapitazi.
Kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa chaka, madera onse a dziko afulumizitsa ntchito yomanga ntchito zazikulu zothandizira chuma "kuyambira bwino". M'gawo loyamba, kumapeto kwa kupewa ndi kuwongolera miliri, chiyembekezo chamsika chinali bwino, ndipo mitengo yazinthu zopangira ndi zomalizidwa zidayenda molimba. Moyendetsedwa ndi "zoyembekeza zamphamvu", welded chitoliro ndi kanasonkhezereka chitoliro mafakitale anali ndi chikhumbo champhamvu kuthandizira mitengo, ndipo kuwonjezeka kunali kwakukulu kuposa kwa chitsulo cha strip, ndipo phindu linali lovomerezeka. Komabe, kumapeto kwa Marichi, zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa sizinatulutsidwe. Pamene kutentha kumachepa ndipo mbiri yoipa ya ndalama zapadziko lonse ikukwera, kuyembekezera kwamphamvu kumabwereranso ku zenizeni, ndipo mitengo ya mafakitale a chitoliro ndi amalonda amayamba kugwa pansi. M'mwezi wa June, phindu la mafakitale opangidwa ndi zitoliro la welded lakhala lochepa kwambiri m'zaka zitatu zapitazi, ndipo zikuyembekezeredwa kuti mwayi wopitiriza kugwa kwambiri ndi wotsika.
Chithunzi 3: Social Inventory of Welded Pipe (Unit: 10,000 tons)
Chithunzi 4: Kusintha kwa phindu la chitoliro cha malata m'zaka zaposachedwa (gawo: yuan/ton)
Gwero la data: Steel Union Data
IV. Kutulutsa ndi Kuyika kwa Welded Pipe Production Enterprises
Tikayang'ana pa linanena bungwe ndi kufufuza kwa welded chitoliro opanga, kuyambira January kuti May chaka chino, linanena bungwe lonse la fakitale chitoliro utachepa kwambiri chaka ndi chaka, ndi mlingo magwiritsidwe ntchito anakhalabe pa 60,2%. Pansi pa chiwerengero chochepa chogwiritsira ntchito mphamvu chaka ndi chaka, kufufuza kwa fakitale ya chitoliro kunali kokwera nthawi zonse kuposa nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha. Pofika pa June 2, 2023, malinga ndi ziwerengero zotsatiridwa za opanga 29 welded chitoliro mu maukonde athu, okwana linanena bungwe mapaipi welded kuyambira January mpaka May anali 7.64 miliyoni matani, chaka ndi chaka kuchepa kwa matani 582,200 kapena 7.08%. Pakali pano, chiwerengero cha welded chitoliro fakitale ndi 81.51 matani, chaka ndi chaka kuchepa kwa matani 34,900.
M'zaka ziwiri zaposachedwa, kukhudzidwa ndi mavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi, kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa m'mphepete mwa mitsinje ndi zina zambiri, kuchuluka kwa chitoliro chowotcherera cha mafakitale apanyumba ambiri chakhalabe chochepa. Kumayambiriro kwa chaka chatsopano, pofuna kupewa zoopsa zomwe zimadza chifukwa cha kusinthasintha kwa mitengo, kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zogwiritsira ntchito makina opanga zitoliro zowotcherera zinali pamunsi pa January mpaka May. Ngakhale linanena bungwe fakitale chitoliro anayamba kuwonjezeka mwachionekere ndi kuwonjezeka kwa phindu la fakitale chitoliro mu February, ngakhale kuposa nthawi yomweyo ya chaka chatha, linanena bungwe la fakitale chitoliro anayamba kuchepa mofulumira kumapeto kwa March pamene phindu fakitale chitoliro anagwa mofulumira. Pakali pano, malingaliro a kaphatikizidwe ndi kufunikira kwa mapaipi otsekemera akadali mu njira yofooka yoperekera ndi kufunikira.
Chithunzi 5: Kusintha kwa chitoliro chowotcherera chotuluka m'mafakitole 29 apanyumba akuluakulu (gawo: matani 10,000)
Gwero la data: Steel Union Data
Chithunzi 6: Kusintha kwazinthu zomalizidwa za mafakitale 29 a mapaipi akuluakulu (gawo: matani 10,000)
Gwero la data: Steel Union Data
V. Mtsinje mkhalidwe wa welded chitoliro
Kuchokera pamalingaliro a msika wogulitsa nyumba, msika wogulitsa nyumba wakhala ukuchepa kwambiri m'zaka zaposachedwa, ndipo kufunikira kwa nyumba sikukwanira Kuyambira mu January mpaka April, ndalama zachitukuko za dziko lonse zinali 3,551.4 biliyoni yuan, pansi pa 6.2% pachaka; Mwa iwo, ndalama zogonamo zinali 2,707.2 biliyoni ya yuan, kutsika ndi 4.9%. M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, madera osiyanasiyana apereka motsatizana ndondomeko zosiyanasiyana zolimbikitsa kubwezeretsedwa kwa msika wogulitsa nyumba, mwachitsanzo, kuchepetsa chiŵerengero cha ngongole, kuchuluka kwa thumba la provident ndi ziyeneretso zogulira nyumba. Pakutha kwa kotala yoyamba, mizinda 96 idakumana ndi zikhalidwe zopumula malire otsika a chiwongola dzanja choyamba, pomwe mizinda 83 idatsitsa malire a chiwongola dzanja choyamba cha chiwongola dzanja ndipo mizinda 12 idachotsa mwachindunji malire otsika a chiwongola dzanja choyamba. Pambuyo pa May Day, malo ambiri akupitiriza kusintha ndondomeko ya ngongole ya provident fund. Chaka chino, liwu lalikulu la ndondomeko ya banki yapakati pa msika wogulitsa nyumba ndi "kuyang'anira zonse zozizira ndi zotentha", zomwe sizimangothandiza mizinda yomwe ikukumana ndi mavuto aakulu pamsika wogulitsa nyumba kuti igwiritse ntchito mokwanira bokosi lazida za ndondomeko, komanso imafuna kuti mizinda yomwe ikukwera mitengo ya nyumba ichoke pa ndondomeko yothandizira panthawi yake. Ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa ndondomeko zosiyanasiyana, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti machitidwe ambiri a kukonzanso msika wogulitsa nyumba adzakhala osasintha chaka chino, koma chiwongoladzanja chonse chidzakhala chochepa.
Tikayang'ana kukula kwa ndalama zomangamanga, malinga ndi deta yomwe inatulutsidwa ndi National Bureau of Statistics, kuyambira Januwale mpaka April, ndalama zowonongeka za dziko (kupatula magetsi, kutentha, gasi ndi madzi ndi mafakitale opangira madzi) zawonjezeka ndi 8,5% pachaka. Pakati pawo, ndalama zoyendetsera njanji zidakwera ndi 14.0%, kasamalidwe kachitetezo chamadzi ndi 10.7%, zoyendera mumsewu ndi 5.8% ndi kasamalidwe ka malo aboma ndi 4.7%. Ndi kunenepa kwambiri kwa malamulo oletsa kuwongolera ndi kuwongolera, zomangamanga zikuyembekezeka kuchitapo kanthu.
M'mwezi wa Epulo, cholozera cha oyang'anira ogula (PMI) chamakampani opanga zinthu chinali 49.2%, kutsika ndi 2.7 peresenti kuyambira mwezi watha, kutsika poyerekeza ndi gawo lofunikira, ndipo kuchuluka kwachuma kwamakampani opanga zinthu kudatsika, kugwera pamlingo wocheperako kwa nthawi yoyamba kuyambira February. Pankhani ya mafakitale, index ya bizinesi yamakampani yomanga inali 63.9%, kutsika ndi 1.7 peresenti kuyambira mwezi watha. Mlozera wa zopanga zopanga ndi zofunidwa zidatsika, makamaka chifukwa chosakwanira kufunikira kwa msika. Ngakhale kuti ndondomeko ya bizinesi yamakampani yomanga idatsika pang'ono mu Epulo poyerekeza ndi mwezi wapitawu, PMI ya zomangamanga inali pamwamba pa 60% kwa miyezi itatu yotsatizana, yomwe idasungabe kulemera kwakukulu. Ntchito yomanga ikuyembekezeka kusintha, koma kubwezeretsanso kwa kupanga ndi kufunikira kwamakampani kumafunika kubwezeretsedwa pang'onopang'ono.
VI. Market Outlook
Mtengo: Mu Juni, ndi kuzungulira kwakhumi kwa mtengo wa coke, malingaliro amsika adatsika. Pakali pano, ntchito yonse ya coke ndi zitsulo zamtengo wapatali idakalibe ndi mphamvu zowonjezera komanso zofooka, pamene mphero zachitsulo zimakhala ndi zoyembekeza zosafunikira zamtsogolo, kotero kuyambiranso kwa kupanga sikudzakhala kofala mu nthawi yochepa, ndipo kukakamizidwa kudzaperekedwabe kwa zipangizo. Kuyambira kumapeto kwa Meyi mpaka koyambirira kwa Juni, ndi nyengo yotentha kwambiri kumwera. Ndi kuwonjezeka kwa kufunikira kwa magetsi okhalamo komanso malo opangira magetsi kuti akonzekerere malasha m'chilimwe, kufunikira kwa malasha kudzakhala ndi malo otsika, komanso kuchititsanso kutsika kwamitengo yachitsulo. M'kanthawi kochepa, ndi kufooketsa kwa chithandizo chamtengo wapatali, mitengo yamtengo wapatali yachitsulo ingapitirize kufooketsa.
Mkhalidwe wa kaphatikizidwe: Kumayambiriro kwa Juni, kuchuluka kwa mabizinesi opanga mapaipi otenthetsera kudatsika kwambiri poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, ndipo kuchuluka kwa mafakitale a mapaipi kudapitilira kuchepa. Posachedwapa, kuthamanga kwa katundu wa fakitale ya chitoliro sikuli kwakukulu, ndipo kutuluka kwa fakitale ya chitoliro kudzawonjezeka pambuyo pa kukonzanso fakitale ya fakitale ya chitoliro.
Zofuna: Pamaziko akuzama projekiti yoyeserera ndikufotokozera mwachidule komanso kufalitsa zomwe zachitika, China iyambitsa ntchito yoteteza chitetezo m'matawuni mozungulira. Ndikofunikira kuchita kafukufuku wokhudza zomangamanga m'matauni, kukhazikitsa nkhokwe yosungiramo zinthu zam'matauni zomwe zili pansi komanso mobisa, kuzindikira komwe kuli kowopsa komanso komwe kuli koopsa kwa zomangamanga zamatawuni, ndikulemba mndandanda wazowopsa zachitetezo chamatawuni. Njira yoyendetsera zomangamanga m'tawuni imatanthawuza za zomangamanga zamatawuni monga gasi, milatho, madzi, ngalande, kutentha ndi njira yogwiritsira ntchito, zomwe sizingasiyanitsidwe ndi ntchito za m'tauni ndi miyoyo ya anthu. Mofanana ndi “mitsempha” ndi “mitsempha ya magazi” m’thupi la munthu, ndicho chitsimikiziro cha kugwira ntchito mosungika kwa mizinda.
VII. Chidule
Ponseponse, m'gawo loyamba, pansi pa ziyembekezo zabwino za macro, mtengo wa mapaipi owotcherera udathandizidwa pang'ono. Kuyambira Epulo mpaka Meyi, magwiridwe antchito a malasha ndi chitsulo anali amphamvu komanso ofooka, ndipo kuthandizira kwamitengo kudachepa. Ngakhale kuti ndalama zogwirira ntchito zachitukuko zikukula, momwe msika ukuyendera m'makampani ogulitsa nyumba sikunasinthe chaka chino, koma kuchira kwathunthu kukuchedwa. Ndichiyambi cha projekiti yachitetezo chachitetezo chazida zamatauni, kufunikira kwa mapaipi achitsulo kungaonjezeke posachedwa, koma kusanja pakati pa zoperekera ndi kufunikira kudzatenga nthawi. Kuphatikizidwa ndi mfundo za chiwongola dzanja chambiri cha Fed, vuto lakubanki likukulirakulirabe, ndipo chiwopsezo chapadziko lonse lapansi chidzakwera kwambiri, zomwe ziwonjezere kusakhazikika kwamisika yazamalonda ndipo zitha kukhudza kugulitsa kunja kwa China. Pazonse, zikuyembekezeka kuti mtengo wapaipi wapadziko lonse udzasiya kutsika ndikukhazikika kuyambira Juni mpaka Julayi.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jul-28-2023